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Hot Corner: No Worries About Fewer Upsets In Recent Tourneys

The Hot Corner

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By Eric Horchy | The Suncoast News

Published: March 31, 2009

It's not exactly going out on a limb by saying that March Madness is one of, if not the, most anticipated sporting events year in and year out.

The simple act of filling out a bracket gives the tourney an interactive feel that is hard to top, or even match.

Being the 27-year-old all-around sports fan that I am, March Madness' allure never fails to pull me in, either. I can also say with much confidence that there has yet to be even one tournament to leave me questioning the month-long event's greatness. I've certainly been disappointed with my preferred teams' performances over time, but not the spectacle as a whole.

Who knows? Maybe I'm just childishly enamored and easily amused.

But that's why I don't understand some of the quibbling about the supposed "predictability" about the past few years' bracket breakdown. Whether it's on talk radio, College GameDay or in random sports bar conversations, a slight panic seems to be growing that it's striking midnight for beloved Cinderellas far earlier than in the past. Ergo, less excitement.

I fail to see it, but let's start with the claim.

The crux of arguments I've heard lately typically start with last year's Final Four – the first time all four No. 1 seeds advanced. That rolls into 2007 when there were two No. 1's and two No. 2's. As for this season: Two No. 1's, one No. 2 and a No. 3.

Apparent memo to all the Sienas and Coppin States and Valparaisos of the country: Quit trying and stay home.

Yes, the past three tourneys have been top-seed heavy come the late rounds. Using very elementary statistics, the current year's outcomes have displayed the least "Madness" in terms of upsets. The Elite Eight's average seeding was 1.75. Dating back to 1999, that's numerically the lowest since 2007's 1.63. The Sweet Sixteen's average this year was 3.06, which is lower than any other during that time frame.

That being said, yes, I do concur that there have been less shockers making waves late in the tournament. But I am not of the mindset that three years equals a lasting trend. And going a step further, I wholeheartedly disagree that there has been less excitement. Not even an iota.

It's much ado about nothing to the nth degree. Another display of the show-me-now mentality of needy fans demanding instant and constant gratification.

How shortsighted can some people be, anyway?

Does Davidson ring a bell? I hope so, because that was last year. Stephen Curry took the No. 10 seed Wildcats into the Elite Eight and nearly knocked off eventual-champion Kansas to reach the Final Four.

What about way back when in the days of 2006 and No. 11 seed George Mason's Final Four surge?

And how about last year's boring, predictable No. 1 seed laden Final Four? That only produced one of the most epic championship-game thrillers in recent memory.

The 2003 tournament was another "lackluster" year in terms of high seeds shaking up the bracket. The Elite Eight's average seeding was 2.38 and the Sweet Sixteen's was 4.19. Perhaps I'm being forgetful, but I don't recall any clamoring about the tourney's overall dullness following Syracuse's last-minute 81-78 title-clinching victory over Kansas.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoy seeing double-digit seeds advancing past the first weekend as much as the next guy. But if it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. It's still March Madness, it's still a ton of basketball being played simultaneously and it's still mass excitement each and every year.

Maybe when the enigma that is the No. 12 seed ceases to exist, I'll start to get worried.

Until then, I say just enjoy the show.

Eric Horchy can be reached at 727-815-1071 or ehorchy@suncoastnews.com.

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